By: George Chaya*

 

La Razón , Madrid , Spain October 02th/2008

 

Hours before the detonation of a car bomb in Lebanon on Sunday, there was a scene in Washington that could have served as a harbinger. The attending to the reception hosted by the Lebanese ambassador report a confrontation between John Hajjar, director of the World Council of the Cedar Revolution (pro-western) and the Lebanese foreign minister Fawzi Salloukh, pro Hezbollah.

 

Hajjar, they say, arrived at the hotel where the reception was being held on 7, when Salloukh and extended his hand to greet him, Hajjar got hers in his pocket (an insult Lebanese). The pro-Iranian upset and told him he spit out - "You have to go!" That all guests were able to hear. Hajjar, American lawyer of Lebanese descent fairly prestige, he replied: "You are where you must leave! You're Lebanese or Iranian? ".

 

The confrontation did not happen from there if it were not the minister was in Washington to accompany the Lebanese president, something the opposition describes as shame, but that is a clear gesture by where they are going to go the path of Lebanese politics in the coming years. The question now is: what does this attack, and what will have implications for the future of this side of the Mediterranean ?

 

Although many insist on seeing the current tense calm in Lebanon as a stable, the main cause of this disorder is the State Department. The main field of study Condoleezza Rice in their formative years was the URSS, and that makes the U.S.A. is applying the model of Soviet containment for all those conflicts in which it finds itself. He supported North Korea versus South Korea , China versus Japan , the radical Palestinian groups against Israel , and they say in Washington , currently calls for lowering the tone towards Russia .

 

In Lebanon , the U.S.A. chose the least bad solution in the short term, giving the green light to a government composed of Islamists and pro-Western in which they are at a distinct disadvantage. Only by understanding this can explain the presence of a Hezbollah minister in the White House. If the pro-Western forces are weakened, advancing Islamist forces in its dismantling of the rule of law.

 

What does this attack? The president Assad uses his secret service attacks to provoke attempt when the West challenged the presence of its troops in Beirut . Then, stating that such attacks showed the need for the Syrian occupation. With the Lebanese democratic forces in retreat, it is highly probable that Syria has resumed its old practices. Three points invited me to believe that this is the case:

 

1. In recent months there has been a deployment of Syrian troops along the northern border, in what appears to be a pincer maneuver against Lebanese Sunnis, who were blamed for the attack.

 

2. Asad has urged the Lebanese president to send troops (of Hezbollah) to the Sunni-majority areas in northern Lebanon .

3. Syrian officials have been making statements to the chains Arabs blaming Sunni formations of the explosion and other acts that Syria describes as ridiculously like Al Qaida.

If the Lebanese president starts a military operation in Sunni areas, the only hint of opposition to Damascus , the Syrian authorship of this attack is demonstrated. From now on, who question the Syrian control over Lebanon is, according to Assad, on the part of Al Qaida. And at the top of this list, pro-Western forces.

 

What will happen now? We can attend a progressive deterioration of the situation to reach a point where a joint operation between members of Hezbollah and Syrian army is justified. Ending the last glimmer of democracy in Lebanon . The irony evidenced by this attack is that it gives the reason to Bush and his controversial doctrine as a farewell to his last days in the White House.

 

 

*George Chaya is writer, professor and International Political Analyst specializing in Lebanese affairs in the Middle East and Latin America . Serves as the expert for Safe Democracy Foundation in Madrid and is academic adviser for Strategic Studies Group (GEES) in Madrid , Spain . Website: www.georgechaya.org